Monday, December 26, 2011

Agency Valuation is an Art, Not Science

!±8± Agency Valuation is an Art, Not Science

Valuing, or benchmarking an agency's worth is typically done for one of three primary reasons:
(1) to determine market value in preparation for an acquisition or merger;
(2) for resolving true ownership value for purposes of changing equity positions whether it be for a buyout, succession planning, ownership disputes, or to introduce a new partner; or
(3) for the owner's edification of what the current market value of his operation may be.

Certainly, there are other reasons to obtain a valuation but those set forth touch on the primary goals behind obtaining and understand the agency's worth.

Generally, valuations should be a careful blending of actuarial, micro and macro economics, core finance, and business principals rolled up into one analysis. Often times, many of the aforementioned principles are omitted and not carefully evaluated during the assessment of the agency's value. There are many experts who offer valuations, but few clearly understand the dynamics that need to be included when working within the insurance industry.

Agents and agencies, being service providers, offer countless intangible value. Intangibles will almost always far outweigh the tangibles of any agency which is why determining value becomes such an art form. Assessing intangible value is more subjective and requires insight from professionals who clearly understand the variables and dynamics of the insurance industry. Generalists, who will value anything from automobile dealerships and manufacturers to hospitals and retailers, sometimes lack the true insight of a niche business that is constantly evolving. They simply want to employ the science aspect of valuation to the agency without a real understanding of what our industry involves.

Valuation experts will typically employ one or two different methodologies when assessing many businesses. The most common are: (1) capitalization of earnings, which is determined by generally applying a multiple to a normalized earnings figure to develop the value; and (2) discounted future earnings, which uses a present value of future years earnings. Many times, the valuation professional will use both methods to determine ranges. They will typically obtain industry data from a publication, use treasury and inflationary indices, guess at future growth rates, and drop their numbers into a spreadsheet which spits out a valuation report. These types of reports obviously lack true insight of the industry, specific market trends, and do not bring true agency value to the forefront. Owners are mislead and sometimes, when negotiating a sale of their life's work, are misinformed. You cannot and should not ever trust your agency's value just to a calculating engine that measures risk free discount rates, U. S. Treasury rates, or any other publication of indices that serve as the underlying calculator of value. This reduces your hard work to a commodity. This is not to say that the published indices are not important, but that there must be much more contemplated in a valuation. Agency owners should always be leery of web sites or valuation companies that allow you to drop key numbers into their spreadsheets which in turn delivers a result on the spot. This treats the value of your agency as if it is in a large pool of homogeneous businesses. Every agency is different and should be assessed in a way that captures its unique characteristics. The quick and dirty valuations always cost less money, but in the long run, they leave the agency owner misinformed. If this type of valuation is used as a negotiating tool, or for guidance, it may potentially result in the owner(s) leaving money on the table in some way.

We should broaden our understanding of true value indicators for the current agency owner. Value can be broken out into two separate categories: economic value and goodwill value.

Economic value uses true quantifiable dollars in the assessment. The result is that there is always a determined dollar value ascribed to a particular revenue stream, contract or property. .Goodwill value is intangible and therefore, more subjective but still critical to the agency's worth. Set forth are some primary examples of economic and goodwill key value indicators of an agency:

Recurring Revenue - This is a critical element that should be compiled and included as part of the valuation. An assessment of the in-force business by policy year, estimated retention or persistency and future commission streams are a must. They clearly demonstrate liquidation or annuity value to the agency owner(s).

Distribution Relationships - This generally refers to exclusive, long-term distribution contracts to capture production from a particular regional or national source. While this can also be considered a goodwill value indicator, economic worth is a value that can be ascribed to the contract. Note that acquirers will typically pay a higher multiple for an exclusive distribution relationship because it presents potential synergy value to them and they should provide higher consideration for the contract. The longer the term of the contract, the greater the value to the agency owner.

Aggregation of Production and Agency Compensation Agreements - An agency's ability to achieve the highest level of production based compensation, or contingent commission, certainly adds value. From the economic perspective, this could enhance a potential acquirer's portfolio of carrier relationships, particularly if the agency possesses a unique carrier relationship that provides top level compensation. This can sometimes create enormous synergistic value to the market and needs to be taken into consideration.

Operating Proficiency and Profitability - An agency's ability to provide scalability, operating proficiency, and overall return on revenues are key economic value creators. An evaluation of pending inventory, placed cases, or premium by headcount are key metrics that can add value if the result reflects consistent proficiency. Also, a business that demonstrates ability to fluidly work with the ebbs and flows of case traffic by appropriately deploying processing personnel, can really add increased value. It is equally critical to have seasoned personnel that can work in a potentially caustic environment. If an agency possesses the ability to be able to grow quickly, manage its workflow efficiently, and returns profitability on a per unit basis, significant worth is added to the business. Finally, an agency that has demonstrated above industry average loss experience and possesses a well underwritten book of business presents itself as a much more attractive prospect in the market. This is a key element that adds economic value to many prospective buyers and should be contemplated in the analysis.

Technology - The use of technology can be a two-edged sword. Value is created when an agency is able to deploy an efficient, cost effective, systematic approach to its operations. Value is further enhanced when proprietary or unique applications such as web technology, application order taking, status, rating or underwriting is used. These add enhancement to the company. It is important to note that companies who pour money down a hole for technology and have serious development burn rates and no return on their investment are extremely difficult to add value to. Many companies who followed the dot-com parade and built their own technology infrastructure cannot get additional value without clear representation that they have something very unique, it provides economic value, and/or that it enhances their business in some way. Unfortunately, many owners fall prey to the "hire" rather than "acquire" technology and are still paying the price.

Internal Growth Rate - Historical growth rates are also important at adding value. If the agency management can navigate through market cycles and demonstrate the ability to continuously add new business through new products, carriers and distribution, this adds significant value to the company. Trending is very important and if an agency can weather the storms of the market, they reap the additional value.

Product margins - Another key issue is the net retention of the agency on a per unit basis. What is the agency receiving in gross compensation and what is it paying to its distribution to acquire the revenue? This is an assessment that can make a big difference particularly when an acquirer is assessing the company. If the agency is rapidly adding new distribution and demonstrating top-line growth through aggressively paying compensation, value may actually be detracted. This presents a scenario where an acquirer will be forced to lower compensation paid to producers in order to level the playing field on net retained commission, post transaction. The acquirer will certainly view this as a high risk move. Acquirers are typically leery of agencies that pay the lion's share of compensation out to producers and survive on razor thin margins and inferior service. The best model is one that demonstrates good fluid growth through unmatched service.

Company Structure - Believe it or not, this is also a key factor. Sub Chapter S corporations, partnerships and limited partnerships present greater financial benefit to the acquiring market. Traditional C corporations, because of tax implications of a stock purchase, may adversely affect the market value of an agency. Essentially, acquirers typically have to forego the deduction of amortization on a C corporation so that they seller can gain capital gains treatment. There are numerous tax rules that surround this issue which can be better determined by a tax specialist.

Product Diversity or Niche - While this may seem to be contradictory, economic value is added if an agency is residing solidly within a particular niche. Especially if there are proprietary product offerings or they have a form of exclusive right to certain distribution channels or carriers. Also, an agency that has a broad product offering may demonstrate the ability to be counter-cyclical or at least be able to ride out market downturns due to their diversity. This enables them to spread market risk throughout numerous products and carrier relationships. Agencies that are entirely commodity-based and reside in easily accessed markets generally hold the least value.

Operating Model - An agency that demonstrates a boutique environment, or one that provides "high touch" service, always gets greater valuation consideration. This clearly denotes more repeat business, greater penetration among producers, better product submissions, and accolades from carriers and other industry professionals. The translation is always lower marketing costs, better underwriting results, and better financial metrics within the agency.

Concentration of Production - This is always a big value deflator and also depends on the size of the agency. Value is discounted when agency production is heavily weighted toward one particular carrier or comes from a few sources. This presents a risk whereby the agency could sustain significant economic damage through departure of one production source or through the cancellation of a carrier contract. A single production or manufacturing source should never represent more than 25 percent of an agency's net operating revenue.

Brand Name Recognition - An agency who has an industry name presents a great deal of goodwill value. If the agency is easily identified within the industry based on its name or that of its principals, this really solidifies its presence as a stalwart. Agency owners or management that is viewed as industry luminaries and is recognized throughout the industry further bolsters goodwill value.

Management depth within an agency is another key value factor. All key areas of agency operations that are represented with industry professionals present very significant value. All of these intangibles translate into one key point; the agency is well grounded, stable, and possesses real going concern value.

These indicators represent a portion of those areas that need to be brought forth when considering the value of an agency. Never trust a web site, calculating engine or spreadsheet template to draw out the substantiated value of your business. An insurance agency can be a gold mine of value that should not be reduced to the level of an automobile appraisal. Agency owners and principals, many of whom have spent a lifetime building their companies, should only trust experienced industry professionals who take the time to clearly understand all of the operating facets of the business and can draw out or optimize the value of the business.


Agency Valuation is an Art, Not Science

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Thursday, December 15, 2011

Only A Major Paradigm Shift In Societal Expectation Can Save Mathematics Education In This Country

!±8± Only A Major Paradigm Shift In Societal Expectation Can Save Mathematics Education In This Country

A Paradigm shift is a major change from one way of thinking to another. A revolution. A metamorphosis driven by agents of change. Thomas Kuhn said "awareness is prerequisite to all acceptable changes of theory." It would seem that the necessary awareness already exists when report after report shows the sorry state of mathematics education in this country. The recent release of Harvard's latest report shows that the US ranks 31st of 56 countries, and only 6% of our high school students take higher level math courses. Another statistic which actually explains the other two is the fact that the failure rate of 1st year Algebra in the country is 50%, and this statistic has stayed consistent of at least four decades. How much more awareness is needed?

A major paradigm shift in something as complicated as our education system is certainly not to be taken lightly. We must first be certain that every possible attempt at positive change has been tried and shown to be a failure. Over the years, there have been at least six major philosophical changes. See my article "The Current State of Mathematics Education In This Country--Caution! You May Not Want To Know This" for a detailed explanation of those philosophical changes. That article also describes the various changes in both textbook series and educational techniques that have been tried over the past several decades. A quick look at No Child Left Behind results will show that there has been no benefit to mathematics education. An extended look at the long-term of effects of NCLB will show that, as with "New Math," the state of mathematics education has actually made a step backward.

This simply can not be allowed to continue. We are no longer able to compete in a global market. The long-term effects of the Algebra failure rate on both society and the individual student are so harmful that it seems criminal for us to allow either to continue. And, yet, while we all agree that the consequences are bad, no one seems to be trying very hard to find solutions. The educational system for mathematics is quite literally being allowed to flounder. School districts are simply rotating though the same techniques that have failed in the past.

So where do we look for solutions to the problems of mathematics education? I believe that the wisest approach would be to look at what has been successful in the field of education and duplicate that.

It seems that nothing in the field of mathematics education has been successful, but, just the opposite is true for reading and writing education. Our very young children enter school eager for the challenge of learning to read and write, and they seem to possess an ingrained sense that they have the ability to learn. They never doubt their ability to learn. Teachers are able to hit the ground running with these students. These children with their enthusiasm, persistence, and confidence in their own abilities stay successful for many years.

With this in mind, the first obvious question is why do our children excel in reading and writing? Answer? Societal expectation. There has always been a "given assumption" or "generalized understanding" that parents--even the extended family unit--have a role to play in preparing pre-school aged children to enter elementary school ready to read and write. Every mother, father, sibling, aunt, uncle, cousin, grandmother, grandfather, and even neighbors take an active interest and role as babies learn to make sounds, say words, crawl, walk, and talk. Babies are incredibly persistent at each of these very difficult tasks because every person in their small universe is quite literally cheering them on. We encourage their every attempt and we reinforce their successes at the same time that we encourage them to "try again" when they fall down. The word "failure" is non-existent at this stage of their little lives.

As the child grows the family unit plays an equal role in language development. Everyone reads to the child and encourages new vocabulary words and correct grammar begins to be evident; and all the while the child is surrounded with reinforcement and encouragement. In some homes, children actually start to read before they enter school. In most homes the necessary preparatory skills for reading are in place for the day school starts. The same has been happening with writings skills. Children are prepared with the alphabet, letter sounds, and letter shapes. They are ready to go to school to learn to read and write. They are filled with excitement. We have filled our children with so much encouragement and reinforcement that they never doubt their own ability to learn to read and write. They know they can learn because we taught them so.

Are the same things happening for mathematics? NO! At most, parents work with their children on counting without realizing that counting is actually a language skill not a math skill. Learning to say "one, two, three, four, five" is the same skill as learning to say "a, b, c, d, e." Should we be angry with parents for not doing with math what they so wonderfully accomplish with reading and writing. Again, NO! There is no societal expectation for parents to work with anything math related.

The next obvious question then becomes why not? Why does society think that not having parents lay the foundation for math success is desirable? The blame for this can be placed squarely on Jean Piaget (1896-1980). Piaget was a biologist who studied molluscs, but eventually moved into the study of childhood development. He divided a child's cognitive development into stages based on age. His proclamations that preschool children were capable of learning language and that children were not capable of abstract thought until age 11 have driven the course of education since the early 1970's. Parents work with preschool children on language because Piaget said they should. And nothing is done with abstract mathematics until almost the teen years because of Piaget. Over the years, we have come to learn that many of his original assumptions were incorrect and that much of his research was flawed. And yet we hang onto those "proclamations" as if they were handed down from God himself. Piaget was wrong! And because of this, the field of mathematics education has been suffering and our children have been failing.

Is it possible for us to change this current state of affairs? I tend to be an optimist and look at things from a positive viewpoint, so, yes, I believed this can be changed. But the change needs to start immediately and it quite literally needs to involve everyone in this society. It will require government support, a great deal of financial investment, and many years to complete.

There are two pieces of research data which do give us hope. The first research result we have known for over 50 years: babies are actually born with an innate number sense the same way they are born with an innate language sense. This doesn't mean that babies are born knowing how to count any more than they know how to speak English. But they are able from birth to distinguish between one, two, and many. This is a survival issue. And their number sense is active during the preschool years.

The other significant piece of research has come from the brain studies being conducted now that we have technology allowing us to actually study how the brain learns. Eric Jensen has been one of the most recognized names in the area of interpreting brain research data and then applying that information into useful form for the classroom. David Sousa's book "How the Brain Learns Mathematics" and John Medina's books "brain rules" and "brain rules for BABY" should become required reading for parents. Why? Because we have learned that the critical or primary period for learning logic and establishing the foundation for arithmetic is--are you sitting down?--ages 1 to 4! Is it any wonder that our children are failing mathematics in large numbers when we in education are totally missing the foundation forming years?

So many wasted years and so many wasted minds. Remember the commercial that said "the mind is a terrible thing to waste?" Yet, for several decades now, we have done exactly that. In trying to find the solution for our Algebra mess, we have repeated philosophy mistakes, we have thrown out textbooks by the millions (billions?), and in the end, we always blame teachers. No Child Left Behind is closing schools and running our best teachers out of the profession. All for the wrong reasons. We have been looking in the wrong places and at the wrong things.

The solution to the problems with mathematics education is not in WHAT we do. It is WHEN we do it.

I hope that you are beginning to see the paradigm shift that needs to happen. We need a major shift in societal expectation to include both language and mathematics in those preschool years. We need families doing for math what they have always done for language. That foundation in math is every bit as important as it is for language. Our children need to be constantly reinforced and encouraged and praised for their persistence for math as much as for language. And maybe most important is that our children need a self concept that says "I am smart enough and I can learn this." They must never doubt their own ability to learn.

The how to make this happen is the topic of another article, but we can all begin right now by spreading the word. Everyone in society needs to understand that they are an essential part of creating the foundation for a successful future in mathematics for our pre-school children. Again, the solution to the problems with mathematics education is not in WHAT we do. It is WHEN we do it. Spread the word. Time is critical.


Only A Major Paradigm Shift In Societal Expectation Can Save Mathematics Education In This Country

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